Sr. Analyst, Credit Risk Loss Forecasting

At FNBO, our employees are the heart of our story—and we’re committed to their success! Please see below the details of this career opportunity and how it fits into our organization’s success.

The Senior Analyst serves as a key technical contributor and analytical expert within the bank's credit risk management function, providing advanced analytical support and insights to drive informed credit decisions on commercial portfolios. Within the Commercial Segment, this role supports the team's CECL loss forecasting and stress test forecasting efforts across commercial real estate, commercial & industrial, agriculture, retail consumer, and small business lending portfolios. This role focuses on CECL and stress test forecasting, portfolio analysis, and reporting, with knowledge of modeling methodology and the dual risk rating framework and the ability to articulate model results into actionable business insight. The Senior Analyst works with minimal supervision, partners closely with the Director and cross-functional stakeholders and serves as a bridge between data analysis and practical business application.

About This Role:

 

 Major Responsibilities: 

• Prepare CECL and stress test forecasts and supporting reporting materials across commercial real estate, commercial & industrial, agriculture, retail consumer, and small business lending portfolios.
• Conduct deep-dive analysis on forecast changes and variances relative to portfolio trends and macroeconomic variables, and present findings, key drivers, and business implications to senior management and risk committees.
• Prepare ongoing monitoring reports and dashboards tracking portfolio performance, model outputs, and forecast accuracy for risk committees, finance, and leadership, including early warning indicators for detecting deteriorating credit quality across portfolios and segments.
• Document model inputs, assumptions, and CECL qualitative write-ups / stress test narratives in accordance with model risk policy, capturing portfolio-specific risk factors, economic assumptions, and management overlays.
• Work with model validators and internal/external auditors, and partner with stakeholders, providing documentation, data, and ad hoc analysis supporting validation, audit, reserve estimation, portfolio planning, and stress testing scenario requests.
• Collaborate with peer credit risk analysts to support ongoing monitoring of the commercial credit risk appetite.
• Identify, evaluate, and pilot new statistical credit forecasting methodologies and technologies including AI and machine learning applications to strengthen the team's analytical toolkit and drive process automation in reporting, data preparation, and model execution.

The Ideal Candidate for This Role:

 

Education and Experience:

• Bachelor's degree in data science, mathematics, statistics, finance, economics, or equivalent experience.
• 3+ years of experience in credit risk forecasting or a related analytical field, preferably with exposure to commercial lending products (CRE, C&I, agriculture, retail consumer, or small business).
• 3+ years of experience using Python, with a focus on data analysis and financial modeling.
• Strong knowledge of SQL and experience working with cloud-based data warehousing solutions (e.g., Snowflake) and version control systems (e.g., Git).
• Expert knowledge of Excel.
• Strong executive presence, with the ability to present recommendations, influence senior management, and collaborate effectively within cross-functional teams.
• Demonstrated ability to handle stress, meet deadlines, and work independently.
• Experience with logistic regression, time series models, and survival analysis techniques, and familiarity with R (in addition to Python and SQL), is a plus.

Knowledge & Skills:

• Strong knowledge of commercial real estate, commercial & industrial, agriculture, retail consumer, and small business lending products and credit risk characteristics.
• Ability to work independently with data to identify complex business trends and propose solutions.
• Proficiency in statistical techniques, modeling, and quantitative analysis.
• Knowledge of loss forecasting methods, including vintage analysis, roll-rate, and time series approaches.
• Familiarity with AI and machine learning frameworks and their application to credit risk.
• Strong executive communication and data storytelling skills.
• Technical proficiency in SQL, Python, Excel, and BI tools for data visualization.

Candidates must possess unrestricted work authorization and not require future sponsorship.

Compensation:

 

Compensation range (base pay): $89,828.00-$148,215.00

This role may have a specific starting pay within this range.

Final compensation offer to candidate may vary from posted hiring range based upon work experience, education, and/or skill level.

Work Environment:

It is anticipated that the incumbent in this role will work in a hybrid capacity, balancing in-person collaboration three (3) days a week with remote flexibility two (2) days a week. As part of our team, you'll experience the energy and relationship-building of face-to-face collaboration while still enjoying the flexibility of remote workdays. We provide the tools and technology to ensure seamless transitions between work environments, supporting your productivity wherever you are. Please note that work location is subject to change based on business needs.

Benefits Overview:

We offer a variety of benefits designed to keep you and your family physically and financially healthy. Not only do we offer a competitive salary and work-life balance, we offer benefits to match your needs:

• Medical, Dental, Vision Insurance

• 401k, With Matching Contributions

• Time Off Programs

• Health Savings Account (HSA)/Dependent Care

• Employee Banking

• Growth Opportunities

• Tuition Assistance

• Short-Term/Long-Term Disability Insurance

Learn more about FNBO benefits here: https://www.fnbo.com/careers/benefits/.

For additional information regarding compensation and benefits, e-mail FNBO at [email protected]. To ensure you receive a response, include the number of this job (listed below) in the subject line of your message.

Job number: R-20261892

Equal Opportunity & Belonging:

FNBO believes that the quality of our employee experience is at the heart of our customer experience. One key pillar of our intended employee experience is Belonging. Belonging means we are committed to fostering a workplace culture where employees of all backgrounds feel valued, recognized, and empowered to be their authentic selves—no matter their role or where they are in their journey.

Learn more here.

FNBO is an equal opportunity employer for all employees and applicants and makes employment decisions without regard to status or identity.

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FNBO is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action/Veterans/Disability Employer - Member FDIC

FNBO follows federal law regarding the use of marijuana (this applies to all non-California applicants)

Application Deadline:

All our jobs will be posted for a minimum of 5 calendar days.  Job postings may come down prior to 5 calendar days based on volume of applicants.